Almerimar

Info from my preferred Spanish stats guy

Note that a multiplication rate of 1.0 means approximately 0 events (cases or deaths) when comparing today`s 4 day average with yesterday's.

Note that this is the data from yesterday - due to timing changes to the release of data by the government

Google translation:

Data Tuesday June 23

Starting today, I am launching a new selection of data and a way to present it, because I consider that we are already in a new post-epidemic stage, so I believe that the focus should not be on a trend compared to the past, but rather an evolution of this trend from the new situation. The aim is to better gauge to what extent the situation is controlled after the first wave.

Yesterday it showed the statistics that reflect that the cases in weekly rhythm have already stopped decreasing for 10 days. Specifically, on June 10 the minimum was reached in the statistics of total cases detected in a week, as shown in the graph. That day was the first and only time in the entire crisis below the 2,000 cases declared in a week (1,954). This figure corresponds to the total official cases announced by the Ministry of Health less the total cases from a week before.

CoronavirusImage24June2020

As of today I take as a reference of daily cases the difference between the official total cases of the day minus those of the previous day. I stop taking as a reference the figure of “Cases diagnosed in the previous day”, since this figure takes into account less than 40% of the total cases diagnosed.

Throughout the crisis I have used the number of daily cases that lowers the real total figure because it is what both the Ministry and the press report as “daily cases”. However, the most real information on the situation is that of the new cases declared, even if they were not diagnosed on the previous day. I did so to join the official communication of the Ministry and because it was a figure that followed similar criteria throughout the first wave. In the current follow-up pass what matters is to be aware of the total cases that are detected.

The total new cases of the last day are 248, by 232 yesterday and 334 two days ago. It is not a bad number because it corresponds to the first day with no weekend effect. However, we may see growth in the figure tomorrow.

CoronavirusImage24June2020

In tune with this new restart, the multiplication rate of total cases has been activated not since the beginning of the crisis, but since the day the trend has no longer reduced cases. Recall that the multiplication rate is the result of dividing today's total cases with those of 4 days ago. The result obtained answers the question "How much have the total cases multiplied in the last 4 days?". Now the “total” cases are no longer 246,752, but are the cases since June 4 (7 days before the trend change). From that day until June 23, a total of 6,426 new cases have been declared. The number of “new total” cases are in the summary data table.

This leads the multiplication rate to stand at 1.15: total cases have increased by 15% in the last 4 days. The evolution of the multiplication rate shows a controlled evolution for the moment, since it is reduced from the 1.3 zone 10 days ago.

CoronavirusImage24June2020

The table of total data includes in the fourth column of results the series "Total cases 1st wave". This shows the number of total cases that had been reached in March, in the same number of days since the 300 total cases were reached. In the first wave, 44,206 new cases were added, down 6,426 now. The difference in the spread of the coronavirus is actually much greater since in March the test was only performed on rave cases, whereas now in June the vast majority of cases are mild or even asymptomatic. They are two different worlds at the moment.

CoronavirusImage24June2020