THIS IS THE ROLLING CORONAVIRUS STORY FOR SATURDAY 16 MAY 2020 - DAY 62 OF LOCK DOWN (NOW PHASE 1 HERE IN ALMERIMAR)
Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy
Note that a multiplication rate of 1.0 means approximately 0 events (cases or deaths) when comparing today`s 4 day average with yesterday's.
I have added a new analysis on the different base scenarios of direct implications of a situation in Spain with 70% of its population infected by coronavirus. Access here.
Today's daily data shows progress in the drop in deaths and apparent stagnation in the number of infections. Apparent because Fernando Simón's team defends that it reflects the new stage in the test strategy.
104 reported deaths. New minimum and at the gates of counting and the deceased by dozens. We have already said that we know that the daily death toll will continue to drop, because the number of new infections has fallen a lot since three weeks ago. It pushes the multiplication rate down to 1.024.
539 infections in the last 24 hours. In line with the data for the whole week. The drop expected for the figures reported today and tomorrow has not arrived. The explanations given by Fernando Simón imply that there is a descent, but implicit. He affirms that the progressive incorporation of the communities to the new stage of testing is beginning to be noticed, and will continue in the coming days. They are no longer reserved for serious cases and health personnel, but instead go to the test stage for early detention: from now on, the test will be carried out on all those who come to health or care centers that present symptoms, even if they are slight. In this way, it is expected to control the majority of symptomatic cases. To also reach asymptomatic cases (which are also contagious), it is necessary to take the added step of tracing and testing contagious contacts. The autonomous communities are doing it to a greater or lesser extent, mainly from the primary care system.
In short, if during the severe phase of the crisis what the sero-epidemiology study tells us is that one out of ten real infections was tested, at this stage the distance will be reduced. If those 500 cases 3 weeks ago involved some 5,000 real new cases, today's can mean 1,500 cases. It is in this sense that Fernando Simón affirms that the downward trend in cases continues. However, since the multiplication rate is calculated on what is measured, it remains stable at 1.009.
Regarding the cases detected in the last four days by the autonomous communities, Catalonia reduced its weight below 30% nationally for the first time. Aragon continues in its less good trend of this last week.