THIS IS THE ROLLING CORONAVIRUS STORY FOR THURSDAY 14 MAY 2020 - DAY 60 OF LOCK DOWN (NOW PHASE 1 HERE IN ALMERIMAR)
Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy
Note that a multiplication rate of 1.0 means approximately 0 events (cases or deaths) when comparing today`s 4 day average with yesterday's.
Data Thursday May 14
Today we understand a little more the situation we are in, after the publication of the first preliminary results of the national sero-epidemiology study by the Carlos III Health Institute. Their results indicate that 5% of the Spanish population is seropositive for the coronavirus, some 2.3 million people. Personally I expected it to be higher, close to 10%. They are data of great importance for the management of the crisis since it gives a dimension of the problem, eliminating uncertainties. The breakdown of the information disaggregated by provinces will be very useful to calibrate each step that is taken in the asymmetric return to activity and mobility.
It is highly appreciated that Spain has undertaken this macro study and, above all, that it has not delayed in publishing its first results. It is tremendously useful information for management. It is information that will also help to clear uncertainties in the rest of the countries of the world, especially in those that more or less directly are betting on massive immunity in the short term.
I show the seroprevalence results grouped by autonomous communities. Madrid and Castilla La Mancha are by far the most affected communities, with more than 12% of the population infected. It is followed by Castilla y León and Navarra, with a third level for Catalonia and Aragon. The communities with the least relative contagion: Murcia, Asturias, Galicia, Andalusia and the Valencian Community.
The seropositive rate leads to a coronavirus case fatality rate of 1.1%, a relatively high figure in the global estimated range. That would be 1.3% if we estimate the impact of the crisis with excess MoMo deaths. Applying a 1% case fatality rate, this would be the contagion rate situation in Europe. Only Belgium would be more extensive in the epidemic than Spain, with 7.1%. Countries with high contagion would be between 3 and 4.5%, with a high number of countries with contagion below 1%.
With respect to daily data, the control situation regarding daily infections is maintained. The death toll is not contained, since the 200 barrier is once again exceeded. It must be remembered that there are still tens of thousands of people hospitalized and the virus has its own lethality. Its impact has been mitigated thanks to health decongestion, but without definitive treatments, the virus will continue to kill a percentage of those infected.
506 new infections declared. Control of the situation: 6 consecutive days below 700 daily cases. Now we have to see if in the next few days it will be at even lower levels, for better control of all cases and its contacts. The multiplication rate drops again to 1.008.
217 deceased. Unfortunately, the barrier of the 200 deceased is broken again, for the first time in 6 days. The death toll has the inertia of all accumulated past cases, but for the same reason this figure will drop, as daily cases have continued to drop. The multiplication rate goes up again, now to 1.026.
With respect to the cases registered by communities in the last four days, the weight of Catalonia rose again (34.4%). Lower the Castilla y León. The cases per 100,000 inhabitants decrease in all communities except in Catalonia and Madrid.