Almerimar

HIS IS THE ROLLING CORONAVIRUS STORY FOR SUNDAY 31 MAY 2020 - DAY 77 OF LOCK DOWN (NOW PHASE 2 HERE IN ALMERIMAR)

Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy

Note that a multiplication rate of 1.0 means approximately 0 events (cases or deaths) when comparing today`s 4 day average with yesterday's.

Note that this is the data from yesterday - due to timing changes to the release of data by the government

Google translation:

Data Saturday May 30

We continue with the blackout regarding the deceased.

271 cases are reported, 84 more than yesterday. Ascent that on the one hand launches a pre-alert, but they are also seven consecutive days below 300 daily. Of today's 84 cases, 75 come from Catalonia and Madrid. Two options: they have identified real spikes or broader tests, or they are simply forced little by little to adjust their daily accounts more and more to the weekly accounts, which are now public. In weekly rhythm, Catalonia has 175 daily cases on average (today it declares 88), Madrid has 87 and today it declares 95. The other communities that have figures “diagnosed the previous day” clearly below the daily average that comes out of the cases “ diagnosed in the last 7 days ”are Castilla y León and Castilla La Mancha.

The multiplication rate rises to 1.004.

With regard to the deceased, we continue in an informative blackout mode, because we have been dry for three days with total figures and "deceased with dates of death in the last 7 days". If these figures are taken as a reference, there are practically no daily deaths (between 1 and 6). The reality is totally different because the autonomous centers continue reporting their deceased on the last day with the same criteria as before, and leads to figures similar to those of the situation prior to the change in notification criteria: between 35 and 60 deaths per day.

I announced that it did not give any information on deaths because using the provisional figures they are offering is giving disinformation and confusion. It is what is happening with enough media, which continue to give the number of daily and total deaths, and are forced to headline that there are hardly any new deaths.

What is going to happen is that one of these days those of the Coordination Center for Alerts and Health Emergencies will come and hit their figures "hit" with a jump of several hundred deaths, both in total and in their new category "deceased with death date in the last 7 days". The information chaos that will cause that day due to the comparison with the death toll that the press is giving now will be remarkable and I think that it will again damage the spirits of the population. It will not be the fault of the press. It will be the fault of the decision made with the umpteenth change of data communication criteria of the Fernando Simón team.

I am no one to answer Fernando Simón's team for their accounting, applied criteria and data analysis to better assess the situation and evolution of the epidemic in Spain. He is an expert of his own. And mine is crisis communication and from that angle I think that the communication chaos that is creating in the media and public opinion is a great mistake. There is nothing to prevent the transition to its famous “validated” figures from maintaining the parallel publication of the data used with the previous criteria, instead of leaving the figures frozen. We are the only country in the dark.
 
 
Spanish government looking for a final 2 week extension of the state of alarm
 
 

THIS IS THE ROLLING CORONAVIRUS STORY FOR SATURDAY 30 MAY 2020 - DAY 76 OF LOCK DOWN (NOW PHASE 2 HERE IN ALMERIMAR)

 

Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy

Note that a multiplication rate of 1.0 means approximately 0 events (cases or deaths) when comparing today`s 4 day average with yesterday's.

Note that this is the data from yesterday - due to timing changes to the release of data by the government

Google translation:

Data Friday May 29

We continue blindly regarding the number of daily deaths in this outbreak of the epidemic in Spain.

I therefore provide information only with respect to cases, as long as this information is not also removed from us.

There are 187 cases registered in the last 24 hours. Practically repeats yesterday's number (182). The multiplication rate remains at 1.003. In the daily case chart it is very clear how this week's figures are one notch below those of the previous week. It corresponds to figures in which there is already an impact of the increase in personal and economic mobility. If distance and hygiene practices are maintained, the foci are point foci that the early detection system can quickly identify and control. The problem is not that there are foci; they are inevitable; the problem is that they are not detected quickly.

Coronavirus Image 30 May 2020

 

Updates to what you can do in various phases of lock down release

https://www.theolivepress.es/spain-news/2020/05/30/what-can-i-do-in-phase-3-of-spains-coronavirus-de-escalation-plan-updates-to-1-and-2-also-announced/

 

No hospital in the province of Almería has coronavirus cases in intensive care wards

https://almeria360.com/actualidad/29052020_los-hospitales-de-almeria-no-tienen-ningun-paciente-en-uci-con-coronavirus_197713.html

THIS IS THE ROLLING CORONAVIRUS STORY FOR FRIDAY 29 MAY 2020 - DAY 75 OF LOCK DOWN (NOW PHASE 2 HERE IN ALMERIMAR)

 

Mercadona to have longer opening hours from Monday 1 June 2020

https://www.euroweeklynews.com/2020/05/29/mercadonas-across-spain-launch-new-opening-hours-starting-on-june-1/

 

Not directly to do with coronavirus. Just brought forward because of it.

https://www.theolivepress.es/spain-...inimum-income-scheme-for-the-most-vulnerable/

THIS IS THE ROLLING CORONAVIRUS STORY FOR WEDNESDAY 27 MAY 2020 - DAY 73 OF LOCK DOWN (NOW PHASE 2 HERE IN ALMERIMAR)

 

Beach vigilantes to be employed in Andalucía this summer

https://www.theolivepress.es/spain-news/2020/05/27/andalucias-coronavirus-beach-vigilantes-to-make-e1900-per-month-this-summer-almost-double-spains-minimum-wage/

 

From today for regions in phase 2 - children can do sport at any time

https://www.euroweeklynews.com/2020/05/27/starting-from-today-children-in-spains-phase-2-can-do-sports-at-whatever-time-they-want-without-limits/

 

Spanish government to try to extend state of alarm to end June

https://www.euroweeklynews.com/2020/05/26/spains-government-confirms-pm-will-request-6th-final-lockdown-extension-until-end-of-june/

 

Possible European coronavirus recovery fund

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52819126

THIS IS THE ROLLING CORONAVIRUS STORY FOR TUESDAY 26 MAY 2020 - DAY 72 OF LOCK DOWN (NOW PHASE 2 HERE IN ALMERIMAR)

 

Paying you annual car tax with El Ejido council

I know of a couple of people who have been having difficulty paying their annual car tax for their Spanish registered car.

The amount to be paid is 62.45 euros. It is due to be paid in April/May 2020 to the local council.

You can pay by online bank transfer. You just need to put your NIE number and Circulación in the reason for the payment.

I have got the bank details you need to use. Plus a contact email address and phone number for the payments section of the council office in Almerimar.

I have a policy of not publishing such information publicly on the site. If you would like the information please get in touch using the contact form on the site.

 

Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy

Note that a multiplication rate of 1.0 means approximately 0 events (cases or deaths) when comparing today`s 4 day average with yesterday's.

Note that this is the data from yesterday - due to timing changes to the release of data by the government

Google translation:

Data Tuesday May 26

Another step, another day less. Yesterday's trend data remains, apart from the weekend effect; Final control of the epidemic is consolidated.

No news in the dance of numbers: another day of misalignments. Yesterday they eliminated almost 2,000 deceased, today they recover 250. Why couldn't they consolidate the two imbalances in one day? Why not make a big consolidation once and for all, or accumulate your internal data to make adjustments once a month? It is puzzling that they do not mind puzzling the different international institutions and media that work with this data.

194 new cases are reported (+62), second day below 200 cases. Which leads to a further decrease in the multiplication rate: it is already at 1.004. 80% of the cases are concentrated in Madrid and Catalonia (which continues without all their cases being reported?). Outside these two communities there are only 36 cases. They give the same data as yesterday for cases started in the last week, 243.

35 deaths (-15) yesterday, which brings us to pre-explosion figures in mid-March. They are 10 days below the 100 daily deaths and 6 in the few dozen. Lower the multiplication rate back to 1.007.
 

THIS IS THE ROLLING CORONAVIRUS STORY FOR MONDAY 25 MAY 2020 - DAY 71 OF LOCK DOWN (NOW PHASE 2 HERE IN ALMERIMAR)

 

Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy

Note that a multiplication rate of 1.0 means approximately 0 events (cases or deaths) when comparing today`s 4 day average with yesterday's.

Note that this is the data from yesterday - due to timing changes to the release of data by the government

Google translation:

Data Sunday May 24

The death toll moves in the already conquered band, although it rises with respect to previous days. Today there are 70 deceased, by 48 yesterday. The multiplication rate is reduced to 1.009.

The number of daily cases drops to 246, already in the range that we hoped to reach yesterday yesterday. However, the double counting of Madrid and Catalonia make it question more and more that the situation is as controlled as it seemed in these two communities with the data that the Ministry of Health published until two days ago.

The Ministry gave as new cases in Madrid those that Madrid indicated as cases of activation or ultimate registration, but those that for different reasons did not correspond to that criterion were added to the total but not in the list of cases for the day. If it was an adjustment operation, it could be avoided. But if it is a systematic practice, it is a system of underestimation of reality, because the cases that Madrid really has every day are never given visibility.

The problem would be less if the difference between the two figures were not very relevant. But the publication of the two figures by Health for two days reveals that the discrepancies are enormous. In the last two days Madrid has declared 94 new cases, but the sum of the cases reported by Madrid in these two days is 446. It seems that something similar happens in Catalonia, and Health cannot yet validate the data.

It is such a large discrepancy that on the one hand it suggests that Madrid does not have the epidemic as controlled as it showed. And secondly, due to the importance of Madrid in the surrounding communities, it raises doubts about the control and end of the epidemic at the national level.

THIS IS THE ROLLING CORONAVIRUS STORY FOR SUNDAY 24 MAY 2020 - DAY 70 OF LOCK DOWN (NOW PHASE 1 HERE IN ALMERIMAR - WE MOVE TO PHASE 2 TOMORROW)

 

Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy

Note that a multiplication rate of 1.0 means approximately 0 events (cases or deaths) when comparing today`s 4 day average with yesterday's.

Note that this is the data from yesterday - due to timing changes to the release of data by the government

Google translation:

Data Saturday May 23

The area of ​​cases and deaths of the last days is maintained. The descent to the next level has not yet taken place. It will probably arrive in the next few days: a number of cases between 150 and 250 daily.

48 deceased today, a minimum figure since the start of the decline in early April. The figure from two days ago is not comparable because the data for Catalonia were missing. It is already a consecutive week with figures below one hundred. Everything indicates that we will not return to that number. The multiplication rate remains at 1.010.

Today I make a stop in the trend in new hospital admissions. It's been almost a month since this important series was recovered. Like the rest of the series, there are constant problems of inconsistencies between the variation of total data and the numbers of daily hospitalizations. But at least in broad lines, the numbers can be reliable.

They are figures of new hospitalizations in the last 7 days. There are 1,246 in the last week. They are really very high figures, especially when compared to the number of new cases. This is due to the existence of tens of thousands of cases still active. Earnings have been cut in half compared to the previous week, and are 3.5 times less than two weeks ago.

Coronavirus Image 23 May 2020

Regarding ICU admissions in the last seven days, it amounts to 147. It decreases compared to 209 in the previous week.

361 new cases reported. It is appreciated that for the first time in the CCAES Daily Update the cases of the anomaly in the way of reporting in Madrid and Catalonia are indicated. Thus, it indicates that Madrid reports 68 newly diagnosed cases and 185 in total. Catalonia, 92 and 151. If the total data is shown as it is done today, it is to be expected that these communities will gradually use this own accounting system (although it continues to surprise that the Ministry of Health is still unable to impose a single criterion. I am surprised.

Today's case number, 361, perfectly maintains the trend of relative case control, with 7 consecutive days below 500. The rate remains at 1.007.
 
 
Spanish footy to resume from 8 June 2020
 
 

THIS IS THE ROLLING CORONAVIRUS STORY FOR SATURDAY 23 MAY 2020 - DAY 69 OF LOCK DOWN (NOW PHASE 1 HERE IN ALMERIMAR - WE MOVE TO PHASE 2 ON MONDAY)

Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy

Note that a multiplication rate of 1.0 means approximately 0 events (cases or deaths) when comparing today`s 4 day average with yesterday's.

Note that this is the data from yesterday - due to timing changes to the release of data by the government

Google translation:

Data Friday May 22

The data confirm a downward trend and final control of the first wave of the epidemic. Terrific day regarding the integration of data from the autonomous communities.

Yesterday I could not show multiplication rates and graphs since the global photograph was left hanging because the data received from Catalonia was blocked in the Ministry of Health, which was subjected to reexamination. Today they announce that we are in the same situation. Fernando Simón has been very hard regarding the problems they have identified as inconsistent in the information transmitted, which leads them to not yet validate the data.

One of the consequences of this situation of reevaluation of figures: today there have been recognized 688 deaths from coronaviruses of past dates that had not been correctly reported in their day. The total death toll thus jumps to 28,628.

The recorded number of deceased for the last 24 hours is 56. We cannot compare it with yesterday's figures, because they did not include those who died in Catalonia, who still do not give them. But as for the underlying trend, very good figures since they clearly move us away from the hundred figure. Tomorrow we enter a new weekly cycle of descent, so now it is likely that we will not see that figure of one hundred deaths per day. The multiplication rate stands at 1.010 (we calculate the rate with respect to the numbers of new daily deaths).

There are 446 new infections, although the total number of infections is increased by 1,787, due to the same adjustment mentioned with the data for Catalonia. Fernando Simón insists again that of these 446 cases only a minority (less than 40) correspond to current activation of the disease. More than 60% correspond to symptoms developed more than a week ago. It is a bad thing that they have been spreading, but regarding the evolution of the epidemic it indicates that the current foci are very limited. The rate rebounds to 1.007.

Like last Friday, we showed the data of cases by communities not with the cases declared in the last 4 days, but in the last 7 days. We are forced not to show the distribution map in percentage due to the problem with the data for Catalonia.

We show case data for every 100,000 inhabitants this week, last week and the difference between the two, without the Catalan data.

CoronavirusImage22May2020

THIS IS THE ROLLING CORONAVIRUS STORY FOR FRIDAY 22 MAY 2020 - DAY 68 OF LOCK DOWN (NOW PHASE 1 HERE IN ALMERIMAR)

 

Granada and Málaga provinces stay in phase 1, the rest if Andalucía moves to phase 2 from Monday 25 May 2020

https://www.theolivepress.es/spain-news/2020/05/22/breaking-malaga-and-granada-will-not-advance-into-phase-2-along-with-the-rest-of-andalucia-on-monday-madrid-and-barcelona-finally-in-phase-1/

 

What you can do in each phase of lock down

http://www.surinenglish.com/national/202005/08/phases-spain-plan-wind-20200508211008.html

This article includes a summary of what we can do from Monday in Phase 2. Also, as mentioned in earlier articles, the exercise times for different categoris of people will no longer apply.

THIS IS THE ROLLING CORONAVIRUS STORY FOR WEDNESDAY 20 MAY 2020 - DAY 66 OF LOCK DOWN (NOW PHASE 1 HERE IN ALMERIMAR)

 

Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy

Note that a multiplication rate of 1.0 means approximately 0 events (cases or deaths) when comparing today`s 4 day average with yesterday's.

Note that this is the data from yesterday - due to timing changes to the release of data by the government

Google translation:

Spain, coronavirus situation, Tuesday May 19.

- Today the trend won this weekend is not broken.

They report 295 cases (+10). Second day below 300. New drop in the multiplication rate, to 1.007. Simón explains that only 17 of them seem to be of a very recent new contagion. The spread of contagion would already be very limited.

-13 communities already apply an early detection system and communicate the data. Today, dry data without graphics, because I do not have access to the material.

83 in the last 48 hours (+24). Third day below 100 deaths. The current range is 60-120. That it moves up or down, if it is within the range, does not mean worsening-improving. Another push down the rate, to 1.012.

Major mess on the data consistency front. Yesterday they gave total deaths: 27,709 Total deaths today: 27,778 Difference: 69 However, they report 83 deaths. In the document they point out a mysterious “Asturias has validated their cases of hospitalized, deceased”. That "the series are being revised." As these surprising inconsistencies (which do not end up being translated into revised series) are constant, it must be understood that they are not very concerned that there are these inconsistencies in their crisis communication.

THIS IS THE ROLLING CORONAVIRUS STORY FOR THURSDAY 21 MAY 2020 - DAY 67 OF LOCK DOWN (NOW PHASE 1 HERE IN ALMERIMAR)

 PLEASE NOTE I HAVE HAD SOME TECHNICAL PROBLEMS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. SO I HAVE BEEN BUSY. SO I HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO PUBLISH STUFF HERE.

Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy

Note that a multiplication rate of 1.0 means approximately 0 events (cases or deaths) when comparing today`s 4 day average with yesterday's.

Note that this is the data from yesterday - due to timing changes to the release of data by the government

Google translation:

Data Wednesday May 20

The trend of the last days is maintained, which is why the last level of decrease achieved in both cases and deaths is reinforced. Today's rebound corresponds to an already recurring trend of rising numbers on Tuesday and Wednesday. It responds more to accounting criteria and rates than to the identification of regrowths or trend changes. So for a long time we have been talking about numbers within a range, when e achieves a new level of decline. It seems to me, as I already indicated, that the current range is 60 to 120 deaths, and less than 500 cases.

95 deaths are reported. Fourth consecutive day below 100. This leads to a further drop in the multiplication rate, now to 1.011.

416 infections in the last 24 hours (+121). Fourth consecutive day below 500. The rate drops again to 1.006. As Fernando Simón has indicated, about 240 of these new cases correspond to symptoms that started more than a week ago. That is, the current transmission detected is very low.
 

If Almería goes to phase 2 the walking and exercise timetables will disappear?

https://www.theolivepress.es/spain-news/2020/05/21/breaking-timetables-for-walking-and-individual-exercise-to-be-abandoned-in-phase-2-of-coronavirus-de-escalation-plan/

THIS IS THE ROLLING CORONAVIRUS STORY FOR TUESDAY 19 MAY 2020 - DAY 65 OF LOCK DOWN (NOW PHASE 1 HERE IN ALMERIMAR)

Been busy with golf and Zoom chats. So not much news today.

 

No news yet from my preferred Spanish stats man. I will provide an update when I see it.

 

Use of masks to be become compulsory?

https://www.theolivepress.es/spain-news/2020/05/19/masks-to-become-obligatory-in-spain-by-tomorrow-says-health-minister-salvador-illa/

THIS IS THE ROLLING CORONAVIRUS STORY FOR MONDAY 18 MAY 2020 - DAY 64 OF LOCK DOWN (NOW PHASE 1 HERE IN ALMERIMAR)

 

Taking temperatures at arrivals at airports in Spain

https://www.euroweeklynews.com/2020/05/18/holidaymakers-to-spain-will-have-their-temperatures-checked-on-arrival-at-the-airport/?fbclid=IwAR3f5weG2f2LjGDn7jtk-6-l_r08XkJzalE3V5mzsPG67f6bDPCLuPb4tso

 

Málaga and Granada to stay in phase 1 for at least 2 weeks?

https://www.theolivepress.es/spain-news/2020/05/18/spainss-health-minister-says-malaga-and-granada-will-remain-phase-1-for-two-weeks/

 

Daily Spanish coronavirus data being reported at a later time of day for a different daily time period.

Here is a Google translation of what my preferred Spanish stats man has said:

Notice, data Monday May 18

Yesterday Fernando Simón announced that as of today the data for the day will no longer be with the information collected until 8:00 p.m. the day before, but until 24:00, to have the data for the calendar day. And that they will take their time to process the data, so they delay the time for communicating the results, in the afternoon. Therefore, our daily blog appointment with daily data will also happen in the afternoon.


So daily stats later in the day from now on.

 

Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy

Note that a multiplication rate of 1.0 means approximately 0 events (cases or deaths) when comparing today`s 4 day average with yesterday's.

Google translation:

Data Monday May 18

Excellent trend movement both on the death front and on new cases detected.

59 deaths, second consecutive day below one hundred (28 less than yesterday). It takes us back to the figures of March 14, at the beginning of the explosion of devastating increasing daily figures. The multiplication rate was then 4. Total deaths were multiplied by 4 every 4 days. Now the rate falls to 1.014, from 1.020 yesterday. However, it is likely that we still bracketed some days with figures above 100 dead, without signifying a rebound: there are still thousands of hospitalized patients.

285 contagions detected in the last 24 hours (I do not know if today corresponds to the last 28 hours, due to the change in the accounting period). Positive surprise for me, since stable figures could be expected due to the expansion of the activation of the early detection strategy, with tests to anyone who comes with symptoms. These are already good global figures so that in each and every one of the communities they can monitor all new cases, a key factor in getting out of the first wave of the epidemic well. The rate returns to the level of 1.008.

Except for Catalonia, with 85 new cases, all communities have less than 50 new cases. These are acceptable figures to monitor all cases, in the hope that they will also monitor all the close contacts of those infected. Aragon continues without reducing its daily number of cases.

In cases for every 100,000 inhabitants in the last 4 days, it increased significantly in Navarra (today it has a notable rise of 30 cases).
 

THIS IS THE ROLLING CORONAVIRUS STORY FOR SUNDAY 17 MAY 2020 - DAY 63 OF LOCK DOWN (NOW PHASE 1 HERE IN ALMERIMAR)

 

Another article about tweaks to the phases of lock down

https://www.euroweeklynews.com/2020/05/17/spains-government-reveals-updates-to-phase-0-1-2-de-escalation-restrictions-across-the-country-from-costa-del-sol-to-costa-blanca/

 

Last day of clapping and making noise - at 20:00 tonight (17 May 2020)

Please do not forget - tonight is the night for the final round of clapping and music for all of the workers who have been working on our behalf. So please try to go out and make some noise tonight at 20:00.

 

Jacqui received this from a friend today

Monotony

Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy

Note that a multiplication rate of 1.0 means approximately 0 events (cases or deaths) when comparing today`s 4 day average with yesterday's.

Google translation:

Data Sunday May 17

The day came when the deceased are counted again by dozens and not by hundreds. A situation that we had not known for two months, on March 15. Situation already anticipated, but very welcome.

87 deaths are reported, which predicts that this week we will move to the bottom of the hundred deaths. We will return to the bar of the 100 deceased (Mars, Wednesday), without this signifying a worsening of the situation. Another notable drop in the multiplication rate, from 1.024 to 1.020.

Yesterday we reported 104 deaths when in reality the Ministry of Health announced 102. The divergence has its source again in the Ministry itself since in the official accounting of May 15 they gave a total of 27,459, and on May 16 27,563, that is, a difference of 104 deceased. There is no explanatory note for this mismatch. At this stage of the game it no longer comes from one more.

421 new infections. We remain in the final control area of ​​the epidemic. We know that cases are going to decrease more slowly than before, due to the implementation of new early detection protocols, which will detect a higher percentage of all real infections. The multiplication rate remains at 1.009.

By autonomous community, in the group of infections in the last four days, the weight of Castilla y León and Valencia rose. Lower the Madrid and Basque Country.

Measured per 100,000 inhabitants, the one that concentrates the most cases in the last four days is Castilla y León.

In the third map you can see today's difference with data from a week ago.

VARIOUS IMAGES See: https://smreputationmetrics.wordpress.com/2020/03/29/coronavirus-en-espana-situacion-y-tendencia-tasa-de-multiplicacion/

We complete the information with the following graph, in which we integrate current situation and trend in the last week, in the number of new cases per 100,000 inhabitants.

With respect to the average for Spain, the graph shows quadrants with the situation of each community with respect to the average. It allows us to see that there is only one case in which infections are above average and the situation has worsened this week: Aragon. The rest of the communities with more cases than the average have improved their situation, the most, Catalonia. There is an important group of communities with few cases and that have also reduced contagions above the average. Galicia, Cantabria and Asturias stand out. A third group with special monitoring are those that are good by number of infections, but their trend is worse than the average: Balearic Islands, Andalusia and Murcia.

ANOTHER IMAGE. See: https://smreputationmetrics.wordpress.com/2020/03/29/coronavirus-en-espana-situacion-y-tendencia-tasa-de-multiplicacion/

 

I thought that this may apply to Almerimar. However, sadly the answer is NO!!!!!!!!

https://www.theolivepress.es/…/spains-coronavirus-lockdown…/

THIS IS THE ROLLING CORONAVIRUS STORY FOR SATURDAY 16 MAY 2020 - DAY 62 OF LOCK DOWN (NOW PHASE 1 HERE IN ALMERIMAR)

 

Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy

Note that a multiplication rate of 1.0 means approximately 0 events (cases or deaths) when comparing today`s 4 day average with yesterday's.

Google translation:

Data Saturday May 16

I have added a new analysis on the different base scenarios of direct implications of a situation in Spain with 70% of its population infected by coronavirus. Access here.

Today's daily data shows progress in the drop in deaths and apparent stagnation in the number of infections. Apparent because Fernando Simón's team defends that it reflects the new stage in the test strategy.

104 reported deaths. New minimum and at the gates of counting and the deceased by dozens. We have already said that we know that the daily death toll will continue to drop, because the number of new infections has fallen a lot since three weeks ago. It pushes the multiplication rate down to 1.024.

539 infections in the last 24 hours. In line with the data for the whole week. The drop expected for the figures reported today and tomorrow has not arrived. The explanations given by Fernando Simón imply that there is a descent, but implicit. He affirms that the progressive incorporation of the communities to the new stage of testing is beginning to be noticed, and will continue in the coming days. They are no longer reserved for serious cases and health personnel, but instead go to the test stage for early detention: from now on, the test will be carried out on all those who come to health or care centers that present symptoms, even if they are slight. In this way, it is expected to control the majority of symptomatic cases. To also reach asymptomatic cases (which are also contagious), it is necessary to take the added step of tracing and testing contagious contacts. The autonomous communities are doing it to a greater or lesser extent, mainly from the primary care system.

In short, if during the severe phase of the crisis what the sero-epidemiology study tells us is that one out of ten real infections was tested, at this stage the distance will be reduced. If those 500 cases 3 weeks ago involved some 5,000 real new cases, today's can mean 1,500 cases. It is in this sense that Fernando Simón affirms that the downward trend in cases continues. However, since the multiplication rate is calculated on what is measured, it remains stable at 1.009.

Regarding the cases detected in the last four days by the autonomous communities, Catalonia reduced its weight below 30% nationally for the first time. Aragon continues in its less good trend of this last week.
 
Coronavirus Image 16 May 2020
 
 
Some tweaks to phase 1 of lock down
 

THIS IS THE ROLLING CORONAVIRUS STORY FOR FRIDAY 15 MAY 2020 - DAY 61 OF LOCK DOWN (NOW PHASE 1 HERE IN ALMERIMAR)

 

International travel restrictions through to June 2020

https://www.theolivepress.es/spain-news/2020/05/15/breaking-brits-and-non-eu-travellers-barred-from-entering-spain-until-june-15-except-in-these-8-circumstances/

 

A Phase 0.5 in Spain?

https://www.theolivepress.es/spain-news/2020/05/15/breaking-madrid-and-catalunya-unlikely-to-pass-into-phase-1-of-coronavirus-de-escalation-plan-but-government-proposes-phase-0-5/

 

Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy

Note that a multiplication rate of 1.0 means approximately 0 events (cases or deaths) when comparing today`s 4 day average with yesterday's.

Google translation:

Data Friday May 15

All the trends of the week are confirmed, and we are now open to see in what new situation the data of Saturday and Sunday will put us.

I also provide new analysis that is extracted from the data of the national sero-epidemiology study published yesterday, on the impact of the virus and the disease by age.

138 deaths in the last 24 hours. In the same way that we were not in these last two days in an upturn in the direction of a change in trend, today's drop is only confirming that we are still at the stage reached this past week. Yes, we could hope that the days with less than 100 deaths reported will begin to arrive soon, the new stage of descent. The multiplication rate rebounded slightly, to 1.027.

549 new infections detected in the last 24 hours. Now we know that it may correspond to some 5,000 new real cases of contagion throughout Spain. In the line of all the data of the week. 7 consecutive days below 600 new infections. However, the multiplication rate rebounded to 1.009 because the daily data has stabilized.

The data that will be published tomorrow will indicate if there is a new slump in the control of the epidemic, and we are putting ourselves in the area of ​​150-300 daily this coming week. Otherwise, there would be too many fronts with the possibility of strong and rapid regrowth.

As the phase assignment to provinces that are in Phase 0 will be announced today, and more lightening measures may be approved in those that are in Phase 1, I show the results by autonomous community with respect to the last 7 days instead of 4 .

First, the total cases by community, for this week and last week, for comparison.

From Saturday 9 to Friday 15 May, 3,511 cases have been identified in Spain. 1,102 come from Catalonia, 556 from Castilla y León. Among the other communities with provinces in Phase 0, Madrid has 437 cases, Castilla La Mancha 276, Valencia 194 and Andalusia 170.

Five communities have less than 5 cases per day: Asturias, La Rioja, Cantabria, Murcia and Extremadura.

The only communities that see an increase in the number of cases are Murcia and the Canary Islands. Aragon repeats number.
 
Coronavirus Image 15 May 2020
 

THIS IS THE ROLLING CORONAVIRUS STORY FOR THURSDAY 14 MAY 2020 - DAY 60 OF LOCK DOWN (NOW PHASE 1 HERE IN ALMERIMAR)

 

Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy

Note that a multiplication rate of 1.0 means approximately 0 events (cases or deaths) when comparing today`s 4 day average with yesterday's.

Google translation:

Data Thursday May 14

Today we understand a little more the situation we are in, after the publication of the first preliminary results of the national sero-epidemiology study by the Carlos III Health Institute. Their results indicate that 5% of the Spanish population is seropositive for the coronavirus, some 2.3 million people. Personally I expected it to be higher, close to 10%. They are data of great importance for the management of the crisis since it gives a dimension of the problem, eliminating uncertainties. The breakdown of the information disaggregated by provinces will be very useful to calibrate each step that is taken in the asymmetric return to activity and mobility.

It is highly appreciated that Spain has undertaken this macro study and, above all, that it has not delayed in publishing its first results. It is tremendously useful information for management. It is information that will also help to clear uncertainties in the rest of the countries of the world, especially in those that more or less directly are betting on massive immunity in the short term.

CoronavirusImaga14May2020A

I show the seroprevalence results grouped by autonomous communities. Madrid and Castilla La Mancha are by far the most affected communities, with more than 12% of the population infected. It is followed by Castilla y León and Navarra, with a third level for Catalonia and Aragon. The communities with the least relative contagion: Murcia, Asturias, Galicia, Andalusia and the Valencian Community.

CoronavirusImaga14May2020B

The seropositive rate leads to a coronavirus case fatality rate of 1.1%, a relatively high figure in the global estimated range. That would be 1.3% if we estimate the impact of the crisis with excess MoMo deaths. Applying a 1% case fatality rate, this would be the contagion rate situation in Europe. Only Belgium would be more extensive in the epidemic than Spain, with 7.1%. Countries with high contagion would be between 3 and 4.5%, with a high number of countries with contagion below 1%.

CoronavirusImaga14May2020C

With respect to daily data, the control situation regarding daily infections is maintained. The death toll is not contained, since the 200 barrier is once again exceeded. It must be remembered that there are still tens of thousands of people hospitalized and the virus has its own lethality. Its impact has been mitigated thanks to health decongestion, but without definitive treatments, the virus will continue to kill a percentage of those infected.

506 new infections declared. Control of the situation: 6 consecutive days below 700 daily cases. Now we have to see if in the next few days it will be at even lower levels, for better control of all cases and its contacts. The multiplication rate drops again to 1.008.

217 deceased. Unfortunately, the barrier of the 200 deceased is broken again, for the first time in 6 days. The death toll has the inertia of all accumulated past cases, but for the same reason this figure will drop, as daily cases have continued to drop. The multiplication rate goes up again, now to 1.026.

With respect to the cases registered by communities in the last four days, the weight of Catalonia rose again (34.4%). Lower the Castilla y León. The cases per 100,000 inhabitants decrease in all communities except in Catalonia and Madrid.

THIS IS THE ROLLING CORONAVIRUS STORY FOR WEDNESDAY 13 MAY 2020 - DAY 59 OF LOCK DOWN (NOW PHASE 1 HERE IN ALMERIMAR)

 

Spanish prime minister looking to extend lock down for another month (rather than in two 2 week chunks)

https://www.euroweeklynews.com/2020/05/13/strategy-change-for-spains-sanchez-as-he-negotiates-with-congress-to-extend-state-of-alarm-for-another-month/

 

Decision on whether Málaga and Granada provinces go to phase 1 due on Friday 15 May 2020

https://www.theolivepress.es/spain-news/2020/05/13/spains-ministry-of-health-to-decide-whether-granada-and-malaga-move-to-phase-1-by-friday/

 

Not too long ago there was only one virus case in the Poniente hospital. I understand that there are now no cases. Or at least there were none yesterday. A little bit of good news.

https://www.lavozdealmeria.com/noticia/3/provincia/193277/el-hospital-del-poniente-sin-pacientes-con-covid-19-ni-en-planta-ni-en-la-uci

 

Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy

Note that a multiplication rate of 1.0 means approximately 0 events (cases or deaths) when comparing today`s 4 day average with yesterday's.

Google translation:

Data Wednesday May 13

The scenario marked four days ago is confirmed. The weekly internal cadence is also repeated.

The cases repeat for the third day below 500 daily infections. Today, 439 (426 yesterday). The multiplication rate drops again a little, to 1.009. Very good signal for the control of the final phase of the first wave, which places it in an area where communities can fully monitor all new cases, and not just serious ones.

A new order has been issued for the autonomous communities to follow up on cases in this new phase, Order SND / 404/2020, of May 11. The strategy to be followed in Spain ?: early detection: “Once the most complicated moment of the crisis has been overcome and now that the different territories are already beginning to advance in the different phases provided for in the Plan for The Transition to a new normality, approved by the Agreement of the Council of Ministers of April 28, 2020, it is necessary to adapt and strengthen the information systems for epidemiological monitoring and surveillance, so that early detection of any case can be carried out that it can have an active infection and that, therefore, it can transmit the disease ”. This approach is translated into article 5 of the order that any suspected (symptomatic) case must be subjected to a PCR test within 24 hours. And that information is added and transmitted to the Ministry of Health. BOE access here.

In other words, Spain renounces the contagion contact tracking system, at least as a legal and formal requirement. Personally I find it very puzzling and dangerous. My hope is that many autonomous communities go one step further and do this process of tracing contacts to identify asymptomatic cases, since everything indicates that they are also contagious.

With respect to the distribution of cases by autonomous communities in the last 4 days, the rate per 100,000 inhabitants in all communities with high figures falls (Castillas, Navarra, Catalonia). In Aragon it remains stable.

184 deceased. Rise with respect to data from Monday and Tuesday, which confirms the weekly rhythm. It does not exceed the 200 barrier, so it remains at the new base this week. The multiplication rate remains at 1.024.

THIS IS THE ROLLING CORONAVIRUS STORY FOR TUESDAY 12 MAY 2020 - DAY 58 OF LOCK DOWN (NOW PHASE 1 HERE IN ALMERIMAR)

 

Golf course re-opened yesterday

Jacqui and played 9 holes today. The golf course is in good nick.

almerimar golf course 12 may 2020

You can see more photos from today in the Gallery.

 

14 day quarantine to be introduced in Spain for international travellers from Friday 15 May 2020

https://www.theolivepress.es/spain-news/2020/05/12/breaking-spain-to-introduce-mandatory-14-day-quarantine-for-international-travellers/

 

Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy

Note that a multiplication rate of 1.0 means approximately 0 events (cases or deaths) when comparing today`s 4 day average with yesterday's.

Google translation:

Data Tuesday May 12

After the good trend data for the weekend, there was an expectation of how much the data would be corrected upward. They are good because they maintain and reinforce the downward trend.

I have commented other times that I consider that the reference variable to calibrate the exit from the first wave of the crisis is the trend in infections. The rest of variables, deaths, ICU, hospitalizations, are tragic legacy of the explosion of cases in March, but they are marked by the dynamics of the epidemic. Unfortunately, they are already “written”, due to the fatal nature of this disease, once control of the hospital emergency has been resumed. On the other hand, if we have 500 cases instead of 2,000, we are ensuring the drop in deaths in the coming weeks.

Well, the trend in new infections is really well focused. 426 cases today. Four days below 700. It gives a strong push to the multiplication rate, which drops to 1.010. It's already 1.01! Total cases have increased by 1% in the last 4 days. A month ago it was 1.13. Two months ago, at the start of the climb, it was 4.4! The cases were multiplied by four every four days.

Starting today, I add a detailed graph of the number of daily cases because, fortunately, the evolution no longer looks good in the full graph, with that peak of 9,222 daily cases from March 31.

As for the distribution of cases registered in the last four days, the weight of Catalonia falls sharply in total cases, from 36.4% to 30.7% because it is released from a very bad day in which it accumulated more than half of new cases.

If we look at the numbers of cases per 100,000 inhabitants in the last four days, Catalonia manages to go up to 8.1 when four days ago it was almost double. If we compare the situation today with that of four days ago for the communities with the most cases, Catalonia, Navarra, Castilla y León, La Rioja and Madrid improve, Castilla La Mancha and Aragón are stable

176 deceased (+53). Fourth day below 200. Except for a brief rebound in the next three days, it is likely that we are already heading towards the low of the 100 daily deaths. The death rate at 1.024.
 

THIS IS THE ROLLING CORONAVIRUS STORY FOR MONDAY 11 MAY 2020 - DAY 57 OF LOCK DOWN (NOW PHASE 1 HERE IN ALMERIMAR)

Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy

Note that a multiplication rate of 1.0 means approximately 0 events (cases or deaths) when comparing today`s 4 day average with yesterday's.

Google translation:

Data Monday May 11

Yesterday's step down data is reinforced today. The risk that yesterday's data worsened today has not been met. We will see how much they are corrected with the data for Tuesday and Wednesday.

123 deaths reported today, 20 fewer than yesterday. New daily minimum in the lowering phase. It pushes significant drop in the multiplication rate, to 1.026.

The Ministry of Health announces 373 new cases (-248), again in the minimum area, in figures that are already manageable so that the autonomous communities can apply a true strategy for tracking positive contacts. The current expansion profile of the epidemic can be considered even lower if we consider that a significant percentage of positives are from health professionals. Yesterday, 42% of positives (265 cases) were from that group. In other words, it is not a matter of free contagion on the street, but of clearly defined foci.

The mismatch between total figures and new cases is again very large today, since it has included 2,721 "old" positives from Catalonia not reported so far. In the note they indicate a concise "the historical series will be updated in the coming days" to account for the mismatch.

Another novelty in the delivery of data by the Ministry of Health is that they finally add the positive results for antibody tests. There are 40,707 so far, which increases the number of total positives to 268,143. It is true that it is convenient to make the distinction between the two cases, since in the positives with antibody tests there are people with the virus that is no longer active, while all the positives with PCR correspond to people in active contagion.

Picture 11 May 2020 A

The Autonomous Communities that have identified the most additional positives with the antibody tests are Castilla La Mancha and Castilla y León, while the Canary Islands does not appear to use this type of test.

Picture11May2020B

As a percentage of the total number of tests carried out, the communities that have used the antibody tests the most are Murcia, Navarra and Castilla La Mancha.

Picture11May2020C
 
 
Possible update on times for doing stuff in Andalucía (still waiting for confirmation)
 
 
 
 
 
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