THIS IS THE ROLLING CORONAVIRUS STORY FOR MONDAY 25 MAY 2020 - DAY 71 OF LOCK DOWN (NOW PHASE 2 HERE IN ALMERIMAR)
Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy
Note that a multiplication rate of 1.0 means approximately 0 events (cases or deaths) when comparing today`s 4 day average with yesterday's.
Note that this is the data from yesterday - due to timing changes to the release of data by the government
Data Sunday May 24
The death toll moves in the already conquered band, although it rises with respect to previous days. Today there are 70 deceased, by 48 yesterday. The multiplication rate is reduced to 1.009.
The number of daily cases drops to 246, already in the range that we hoped to reach yesterday yesterday. However, the double counting of Madrid and Catalonia make it question more and more that the situation is as controlled as it seemed in these two communities with the data that the Ministry of Health published until two days ago.
The Ministry gave as new cases in Madrid those that Madrid indicated as cases of activation or ultimate registration, but those that for different reasons did not correspond to that criterion were added to the total but not in the list of cases for the day. If it was an adjustment operation, it could be avoided. But if it is a systematic practice, it is a system of underestimation of reality, because the cases that Madrid really has every day are never given visibility.
The problem would be less if the difference between the two figures were not very relevant. But the publication of the two figures by Health for two days reveals that the discrepancies are enormous. In the last two days Madrid has declared 94 new cases, but the sum of the cases reported by Madrid in these two days is 446. It seems that something similar happens in Catalonia, and Health cannot yet validate the data.
It is such a large discrepancy that on the one hand it suggests that Madrid does not have the epidemic as controlled as it showed. And secondly, due to the importance of Madrid in the surrounding communities, it raises doubts about the control and end of the epidemic at the national level.