THIS IS THE ROLLING CORONAVIRUS STORY FOR SATURDAY 25 APRIL 2020 - DAY 41 OF LOCK DOWN
Sorry, I have been a bit busy today. Will update this story later. After I have posted the next daily item from Memorias de Almerimar.
Fantastic video of a dancer taking out the bins - courtesy of the BBC
Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy
Data for Saturday, April 25
It survived as well as it could yesterday's grief of the Ministry of Health, in which it applied a new change of criteria, maintained the two criteria in the official document, reported appearing aggregated data to later rectify them. As it was soon seen that it was a day of occurrences, I gave up following his logic and adjusting the information to his misinformation.
Once the trance has been overcome, what the Ministry communicates today is that at least today it is committed to continuing with the latest version it gave yesterday. I don't spend time explaining what his criteria changes consist of because we don't know how long the changes will take now. Explaining what can change again tomorrow has become an exercise that instead of helping the population, what it does is confuse them more. So I do not collaborate in this dynamic. I show the results without explaining why they are better or worse than the previous ones. (Note: you have not published the official document on the web and on networks, so I am afraid there may be new changes).
The new criterion is not more realistic than yesterday's. Both the number of declared infections and the total deaths are far from reality, which is more serious in both cases (in total numbers). I have already commented on this in shared analyzes on Twitter.
But it is also important to insist on why I give and analyze the official data and I do not dedicate myself to making estimates of more real data, and sharing those "real" data. First, because I am not an epidemiologist. Second, and much more important, because what we need to know now is not the exact number of infected and deceased to know what stage of the epidemic we are in, if we are controlling it and if we can get out of confinement. For this, what is needed is to see the trend with a sample that, even if it is biased, is representative of reality not in its situation, but in its trend. And that basically if we have it with the official figures, as long as their accounting criteria do not change disproportionately. And third, because what I intend to do is to provide complementary visualization, information and analysis to the official data published by the Ministry because it is those data with which the television news and the covers of the newspapers and its website are opened.
That said, the consequence of the changes is that they reduce the number of total infected people by about 18,000 with respect to the series followed until the first statement yesterday. With the new count there are 205,905 total cases compared to 223,795. So far, when they have made these changes, they have not updated the series data from the previous days applying the new criteria. It is therefore a “dirty” series, with data with mixed criteria. As long as Ministry does not make a new official calculation, I have applied a basic adjustment of the series, without any sophistication. I apply the same reduction criteria. In the column "Old cases" are the figures of the official published until yesterday, in "Total cases" are the official figures for the last 3 days and the above corresponds to my own calculation.
The adjustment allows the multiplication rate to be unchanged and altered. As for new daily cases, I do not comment, because it remains to be seen what comes out with a few more days with the same accounting criteria.
In deceased, it is possible to maintain the level reached yesterday: 378 deceased, by 367 yesterday and 440 the day before yesterday. As we said, it allows to settle in a new phase that confirms descent.