HIS IS THE ROLLING CORONAVIRUS STORY FOR SUNDAY 31 MAY 2020 - DAY 77 OF LOCK DOWN (NOW PHASE 2 HERE IN ALMERIMAR)
Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy
Note that a multiplication rate of 1.0 means approximately 0 events (cases or deaths) when comparing today`s 4 day average with yesterday's.
Note that this is the data from yesterday - due to timing changes to the release of data by the government
We continue with the blackout regarding the deceased.
271 cases are reported, 84 more than yesterday. Ascent that on the one hand launches a pre-alert, but they are also seven consecutive days below 300 daily. Of today's 84 cases, 75 come from Catalonia and Madrid. Two options: they have identified real spikes or broader tests, or they are simply forced little by little to adjust their daily accounts more and more to the weekly accounts, which are now public. In weekly rhythm, Catalonia has 175 daily cases on average (today it declares 88), Madrid has 87 and today it declares 95. The other communities that have figures “diagnosed the previous day” clearly below the daily average that comes out of the cases “ diagnosed in the last 7 days ”are Castilla y León and Castilla La Mancha.
The multiplication rate rises to 1.004.
With regard to the deceased, we continue in an informative blackout mode, because we have been dry for three days with total figures and "deceased with dates of death in the last 7 days". If these figures are taken as a reference, there are practically no daily deaths (between 1 and 6). The reality is totally different because the autonomous centers continue reporting their deceased on the last day with the same criteria as before, and leads to figures similar to those of the situation prior to the change in notification criteria: between 35 and 60 deaths per day.
I announced that it did not give any information on deaths because using the provisional figures they are offering is giving disinformation and confusion. It is what is happening with enough media, which continue to give the number of daily and total deaths, and are forced to headline that there are hardly any new deaths.
What is going to happen is that one of these days those of the Coordination Center for Alerts and Health Emergencies will come and hit their figures "hit" with a jump of several hundred deaths, both in total and in their new category "deceased with death date in the last 7 days". The information chaos that will cause that day due to the comparison with the death toll that the press is giving now will be remarkable and I think that it will again damage the spirits of the population. It will not be the fault of the press. It will be the fault of the decision made with the umpteenth change of data communication criteria of the Fernando Simón team.
I am no one to answer Fernando Simón's team for their accounting, applied criteria and data analysis to better assess the situation and evolution of the epidemic in Spain. He is an expert of his own. And mine is crisis communication and from that angle I think that the communication chaos that is creating in the media and public opinion is a great mistake. There is nothing to prevent the transition to its famous “validated” figures from maintaining the parallel publication of the data used with the previous criteria, instead of leaving the figures frozen. We are the only country in the dark.